Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources

Contents:

Author Info

  • Robert L. Winkler

    (Indiana University and INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Inferences or decisions in the face of uncertainty should be based on all available information. Thus, when probability distributions for an uncertain quantity are obtained from experts, models, or other information sources, these distributions should be combined to form a single consensus distribution upon which inferences and decisions can be based. An important feature of information from different sources is the possibility of stochastic dependence, and a consensus model which formally allows for such dependence is developed in this paper. Under normality, the model yields reasonably tractable results, and the consensus distribution is quite sensitive to the degree of dependence.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.27.4.479
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 27 (1981)
    Issue (Month): 4 (April)
    Pages: 479-488

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:27:y:1981:i:4:p:479-488

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA
    Phone: +1-443-757-3500
    Fax: 443-757-3515
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.informs.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: consensus; Bayesian inference; dependent estimation errors;

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:27:y:1981:i:4:p:479-488

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.