IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v17y1971i12pb773-b781.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic Forecasting for Contractors

Author

Listed:
  • H. E. Kierulff

    (University of Southern California)

  • D. E. Robison

    (Union College)

Abstract

Firms that perform work on contract to others often estimate their sales by assigning a probability of award to each potential contract, finding the expected value of each contract and then summing these expected values. Our methodology provides a complete probability distribution around the company sales forecast mean with no further data input than that required to obtain the expected value. The full distribution more realistically portrays business prospects, and allows planners and decision makers to engage in more sophisticated probabilistic forecasting and alternatives analysis. The methodology has been programmed for the computer, and modified to allow for rapid and inexpensive calculation of both sales award and operating sales distributions for a large number of contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • H. E. Kierulff & D. E. Robison, 1971. "Probabilistic Forecasting for Contractors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(12), pages 773-781, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:17:y:1971:i:12:p:b773-b781
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.17.12.B773
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.17.12.B773
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.17.12.B773?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:17:y:1971:i:12:p:b773-b781. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.