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Sales Forecasting with the Aid of a Human Behavior Simulator

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  • George Schussel

    (Northrop Corporation)

Abstract

This article describes a recent application of simulation to a forecasting problem. The simulation was of the human behavior characteristics of a diverse group of retail dealers. The purpose of the simulation was to propose and test a new method of forecasting a manufacturer's sales to his retail dealers. A simulation model of dealer behavior was constructed and proved very effective in helping the manufacturer to generate good sales forecasts. Unsophisticated retailers were found to have a sufficiently systematic set of procedures to permit simulation of these procedures by a computer model and it was concluded that effective simulation of the human decision processes of a large non-homogeneous group of businessmen is possible.

Suggested Citation

  • George Schussel, 1967. "Sales Forecasting with the Aid of a Human Behavior Simulator," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(10), pages 593-611, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:13:y:1967:i:10:p:b593-b611
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.13.10.B593
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