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The Mover-Stayer Model for the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Action

Author

Listed:
  • Carla Rossi

    (Dipartimento di Matematica, Universita di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy)

  • Giuseppe Schinaia

    (Dipartimento di Studi Geoeconomici, Statistici, Storici per l'Analisi Regionale, Universita di Roma “La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy)

Abstract

Short- and medium-term projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic indicators are of great interest to those evaluating the needs for health care and prevention interventions. We developed a simulation procedure to obtain forecasts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and used it to estimate the characteristic regional parameters of the epidemic in Italy. The simulation procedure is based on a hybrid compartmental model, in which the epidemic evolves via nonrandom mixing patterns. Because of its structure, the model is suitable for policy making; in particular, for evaluating prevention campaigns, alternate forms of health care for people with AIDS, and drug supply needs. The model will also be used to estimate the number of intravenous drug users in Italy and the number of AIDS cases not reported or reported with a delay to the Italian surveillance system.

Suggested Citation

  • Carla Rossi & Giuseppe Schinaia, 1998. "The Mover-Stayer Model for the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Action," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 127-143, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:28:y:1998:i:3:p:127-143
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.28.3.127
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    Cited by:

    1. J D Griffiths & Z F Lawson & J E Williams, 2006. "Modelling treatment effects in the HIV/AIDS epidemic," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(12), pages 1413-1424, December.

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