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Estimating and Projecting Regional HIV/AIDS Cases and Costs, 1990–2000: A Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Carl M. Harris

    (AIDS Forecasting Project, Department of Operations Research and Engineering, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia 22030)

  • Edward Rattner

    (AIDS Forecasting Project, Department of Operations Research and Engineering, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia 22030)

Abstract

We developed predictions of HIV/AIDS caseloads and costs for the Northern Virginia Planning District Commission as input to its continuing evaluation of the economic welfare of northern Virginia's cities and counties. We developed a series of procedures beginning with US case and cost estimates for the period 1990 to 2000 and leading to estimates of state and local HIV/AIDS cases and costs. As a result, we estimate that the annual incidence of AIDS in northern Virginia will increase from 391 in 1990 to 643 by 2000, while pre-AIDS prevalence will decline from a peak of about 6,900 in 1993 to about 4,400 in 2000. We estimate the medical costs to the region of AIDS (excluding pre-AIDS cases) will reach $65 million annually (1992 $) by the turn of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl M. Harris & Edward Rattner, 1997. "Estimating and Projecting Regional HIV/AIDS Cases and Costs, 1990–2000: A Case Study," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 38-53, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:27:y:1997:i:5:p:38-53
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.27.5.38
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