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Prognosis After AIDS: A Severity Index Based on Experts' Judgments

Author

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  • Farrokh Alemi

    (Graduate Study in Health Care Administration, Cleveland State University, 2121 Euclid, University Center Room 532, Cleveland, Ohio 44115)

  • Barbara Turner

    (Jefferson Medical College, 1025 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19107)

  • Leona Markson

    (Jefferson Medical College, 1025 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19107)

  • Richard Szorady

    (Department of Management, Cleveland State University, 2121 Euclid, University Center Room 532, Cleveland, Ohio 44115)

  • Tom McCarron

    (Jefferson Medical College, 1025 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19107)

Abstract

Survival after diagnosis of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) differs greatly depending upon the type of complications the patient experiences. A detailed understanding of this variation in survival is an essential component of health care planning so that demands for hospital beds and other health care resources can be more realistically anticipated. We developed two severity indices for predicting the prognosis of AIDS patients using additive and multiplicative multi-attribute utility models. A panel of physicians described the scoring of each index. On 97 randomly selected patient profiles, we compared both severity scores to the clinical assessments of the expert panel. The multiplicative index was more accurate than the additive index. We describe the multiplicative scoring system for AIDS severity.

Suggested Citation

  • Farrokh Alemi & Barbara Turner & Leona Markson & Richard Szorady & Tom McCarron, 1991. "Prognosis After AIDS: A Severity Index Based on Experts' Judgments," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 105-116, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:21:y:1991:i:3:p:105-116
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.21.3.105
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