IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/orinte/v16y1986i6p58-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Fifth Column: The Case of the Unused Forecast or When Trying to Forecast What’s to Be, First Try Y = MX + B

Author

Listed:
  • Gene Woolsey

    (Department of Engineering, U.S. Military Academy, West Point, New York 10996)

Abstract

Once upon a time, a young MS/OR analyst for an airline received an unusual request for assistance---he was to review the volume-rate-forecasting model for the airline's reservation system. This state-of-the-art model was used for analyzing and forecasting univariate-time-series and transfer-function data based on an autoregressive integrated moving average technique. The request was unusual because its two originators had, between them, a combined total of five advanced degrees in mathematics. Our hero was, naturally, a bit curious about why such a pair were requesting help from a person holding an OR degree from an institution of the quick and dirty persuasion. After they explained that they wanted him to “fine tune” their model by looking at the white noise, degrees of differencing, residual normality, and perturbation values, he was even more curious. His curiosity disappeared when they admitted, through clenched teeth, that they had been ordered to seek his help.

Suggested Citation

  • Gene Woolsey, 1986. "The Fifth Column: The Case of the Unused Forecast or When Trying to Forecast What’s to Be, First Try Y = MX + B," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 16(6), pages 58-60, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:16:y:1986:i:6:p:58-60
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.16.6.58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.16.6.58
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/inte.16.6.58?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:16:y:1986:i:6:p:58-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.