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Project Cost Control: Dynamic Risk Analysis of Randomly Ordered Sequential Decisions Under Uncertainty

Author

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  • Gerald M. Hoffman

    (Standard Oil Company (Indiana), Mail Code 180, Chicago, Illinois 60608)

Abstract

Management of a major construction project involves a sequence of decisions under uncertainty; the order in which the decisions must be made is unknown in advance and largely beyond the control of the decision maker. A method called Dynamic Risk Analysis (DRA) has been developed which analyses the cost implications of the decisions as they are made, using repeated application of classical (static, single point) risk analysis and appropriate data displays. The method is applicable in a wide variety of other contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald M. Hoffman, 1982. "Project Cost Control: Dynamic Risk Analysis of Randomly Ordered Sequential Decisions Under Uncertainty," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 45-51, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:12:y:1982:i:3:p:45-51
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.12.3.45
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    Keywords

    decision analysis; risk;

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