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National Risk Assessment for Carbon Fibers Released from Aircraft Fires

Author

Listed:
  • Donald B. Rosenfield

    (Arthur D. Little. Inc., Acorn Park, Cambridge Massachusetts 02140)

  • Joseph Fiksel

    (Arthur D. Little. Inc., Acorn Park, Cambridge Massachusetts 02140)

Abstract

Carbon fibers released from accidental aircraft fires may present a hazard in electronic equipment within u large radius. Two separate methodologies to quantify the associated economic risks were developed and applied, each providing a useful general approach to probabilistic risk assessment. For the case of commercial air carrier accidents, which are infrequent but may release large amounts of carbon fiber. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed for 26 major airports and then the results were aggregated into a national risk profile. For the case of general aviation accidents, which are frequent but release only small amounts, an analytic approach based on the Poisson process was used to estimate the risk profile. The results indicated that the potential economic losses due to carbon fiber usage in civilian aircraft were relatively low.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald B. Rosenfield & Joseph Fiksel, 1982. "National Risk Assessment for Carbon Fibers Released from Aircraft Fires," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 64-73, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:12:y:1982:i:2:p:64-73
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.12.2.64
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    Keywords

    economics: risk assessment; air;

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