Keeping Ahead of a $2 Billion Canal

During the 2300-mile voyage from the Atlantic Ocean to the head of the Great Lakes, vessels climb to some 600 feet above sea level. The very locks which make this possible are at the same time obstacles to the free flow of traffic and the Welland Canal, which bypasses Niagara Falls, is the major bottleneck in the system. In 1964, the Welland experienced severe congestion and it was only by 1967, with a host of canal improvements, that capacity reached a point more consistent with demand. Steadily increasing demand since then has made it difficult to delay the construction of a $2 billion new canal. In 1978 a simulation model of the Welland Canal was used to fill the longstanding need to structure planning---to indicate when canal capacity should be increased and to compare improvement options objectively. The model has since supported several million-dollar decisions: (1) The new canal was put off yet another two years and revenue increased by $3 million per year through a relatively modest $6 million channel-widening project. (2) The $5 million field testing of a radically new operating concept was planned. (3) The components of a $175 million multifaceted canal improvement program are currently being ranked.