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¿Hay una Mejor Teoría para Modelar Decisiones bajo Incertidumbre?

Author

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  • Leobardo Plata Pérez

    (Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, Facultad de Economía)

Abstract

En este trabajo nos cuestionamos ¿Hay una mejor teoría para modelar decisiones bajo incertidumbre? ¿Cual el estatus de la racionalidad limitada de Simon, teoría alternativa o complementaria a la teoría tradicional de Von Neumann y Morgenstern,?. ¿Cual ha sido el papel de la teoría de prospectos?. Analizamos algunas paradojas para explicar extensiones y alternativas a la teoría VNM Sostenemos que la racionalidad limitada de Simon es una alternativa que complementa a VNM, no es una teoría antagónica. La teoría de prospectos de Kanheman y Tversky ha generado la economía del comportamiento. Presentamos resultados experimentales tipo Paradoja de Allais. Introducimos las bases de una nueva línea de investigación para estudiar decisiones bajo incertidumbre de modo cualitativa y poco basado en cálculos numérico.

Suggested Citation

  • Leobardo Plata Pérez, 2013. "¿Hay una Mejor Teoría para Modelar Decisiones bajo Incertidumbre?," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, Enero-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:8:y:2013:i:1:p:1-24
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    File URL: http://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/39/63
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Teoría de la decisión; Teoría VNM; Racionalidad acotada; Paradoja de Allais; Teoría de Prospectos; Paradoja de Ellsberg; Axioma de independencia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • B29 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Other
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

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