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Determinantes del Precio Spot Eléctrico en el Sistema Interconectado Central de Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Iryna Sikora

    (KPMG España Asesores S.L.)

  • Juan Antonio Campos Abad

    (División de Prospectiva y Política Energética)

  • Javier Bustos Salvagno

    (División de Prospectiva y Política Energética, Ministerio de Energía)

Abstract

This paper aims to identify the key determinants of Chilean spot power price and assess their relative importance in recent price decline. To do so, we use a VAR model with weekly data between the years 2015-2016 and variance decomposition analysis to attribute variations of marginal cost to different shocks. The results show that while the availability of water for hydropower and lower fuel prices are important for explaining power spot prices, they only account for 50%-75% of the marginal cost's variance, leaving 25%-50% to other factors, such as more renewable generation and lower generation from oil sources, among other factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Iryna Sikora & Juan Antonio Campos Abad & Javier Bustos Salvagno, 2017. "Determinantes del Precio Spot Eléctrico en el Sistema Interconectado Central de Chile," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 32(2), pages 3-38, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:32:y:2017:i:2:p:3-38
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR; spot price; electricity; Chile;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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