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Technical Analysis and the London Stock Exchange: Testing Trading Rules Using the FT30

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  • Mills, Terence C
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the predictive ability of various simple technical trading rules by analysing daily data on the London Stock Exchange FT30 index for the period 1935-94. Assessing the statistical significance of the rules via AR-ARCH models and bootstrap techniques, it is found that the trading rules worked, in the sense of producing a return greater than a buy-and-hold strategy, for most of the sample period, at least up to the early 1980s, i.e. when the market was effectively driftless. Since then, however, the buy-and-hold strategy has clearly dominated. Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

    Volume (Year): 2 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 319-31

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    Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:2:y:1997:i:4:p:319-31

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    Cited by:
    1. Michael McAleer & John Suen & Wing Keung Wong, 2013. "Profiteering from the Dot-com Bubble, Sub-Prime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-077/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Sheung Tat Chan, 2008. "Structural Change in the Efficiency of the Japanese Stock Market after the Millennium," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(7), pages 1-7.
    3. Nunez-Letamendia, Laura, 2007. "Fitting the control parameters of a genetic algorithm: An application to technical trading systems design," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(3), pages 847-868, June.
    4. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Chen Li & Ho Tin Yu, 2008. "Structural Change in the Stock Market Efficiency after the Millennium: The MACD Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(12), pages 1-6.
    5. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Ng, Wing-Kam & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2014. "Revisiting the Performance of MACD and RSI Oscillators," MPRA Paper 54149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:12:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Alagidede, Paul, 2011. "Return behaviour in Africa's emerging equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 133-140, May.
    8. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski & Paweł Sakowski, 2012. "Investment strategies beating the market. What can we squeeze from the market?," Working Papers 2012-04, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    9. Cheol-Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, 09.
    10. Fong, Wai Mun & Yong, Lawrence H. M., 2005. "Chasing trends: recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 43-76, January.
    11. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lam, Tau-Hing & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2012. "Is the Chinese stock market really inefficient?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 122-137.

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