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Technical Analysis and the London Stock Exchange: Testing Trading Rules Using the FT30

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  • Mills, Terence C

Abstract

This paper investigates the predictive ability of various simple technical trading rules by analysing daily data on the London Stock Exchange FT30 index for the period 1935-94. Assessing the statistical significance of the rules via AR-ARCH models and bootstrap techniques, it is found that the trading rules worked, in the sense of producing a return greater than a buy-and-hold strategy, for most of the sample period, at least up to the early 1980s, i.e. when the market was effectively driftless. Since then, however, the buy-and-hold strategy has clearly dominated. Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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  • Mills, Terence C, 1997. "Technical Analysis and the London Stock Exchange: Testing Trading Rules Using the FT30," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 319-331, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:2:y:1997:i:4:p:319-31
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