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A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 12 June 2011 Turkish parliamentary election

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Author Info

  • Ali T. Akarca

    (University of Illinois at Chicago, Department of Economics)

Abstract

The expected nationwide vote share of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the 12 June 2011 parliamentary election in Turkey is predicted based on historical patterns rather than poll data. For this purpose a vote equation developed by Akarca and Tansel (2006) and Akarca (2009) is used, after it is revised and updated. This model considers the credit or blame the government gets due to economic conditions, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency. It also takes into account strategic voting by the electorate to balance the power of the government. In the estimation of the equation, data pertaining to twenty-seven parliamentary and local administrations elections held between 1950 and 2009 is utilized. If history is any guide, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) should be expected to receive about 44 percent of the vote in the upcoming election.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 26 (2011)
Issue (Month): 302 ()
Pages: 53-74

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:26:y:2011:i:302:p:53-74

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Web page: http://iif.com.tr

Related research

Keywords: Elections; Voter behavior; Economic voting; Strategic voting; Turkey;

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Cited by:
  1. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "Inter-election vote swings for the Turkish ruling party: The impact of economic performance and other factors," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 6, pages 7-25.
  2. Harun Yuksel & Abdulkadir Civan, 2013. "The Impact of Economic Factors on the 2011 Turkish General Election," Bogazici Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67.
  3. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2012. "Turkish Voter Response to Government Incompetence and Corruption Related to the 1999 Earthquakes," ERC Working Papers 1202, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2012.

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