Optimal Hedge oranı tahminlemesi üzerine ampirik bir çalışma: VOB örneği
Abstract
Bu makalenin amacı Vadeli İşlemler ve Opsiyon Borsasında (VOB) işlem gören İMKB-30 Endeks Vadeli İşlem sözleşmesine ait optimal hedge oranının, çeşitli ekonometrik yöntemlerin karşılaştırılması suretiyle tespit edilmesidir. Çalışmada spesifik olarak Konvansiyonel Regresyon Modeli, Hata Düzeltme Modeli (HDM) ve GARCH modeli kullanılmıştır. Modellerin tahminlerine ilişkin hedge etkinlikleri, spot varyansta yaratılan azalma dikkate alınarak, örneklem-içi ve örneklem-dışı veri setleri için ayrı ayrı hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, GARCH modeli yardımıyla saptanan hedge oranının her iki zaman aralığı için de en düşük portföy riskini sağladığı ve diğer modellerin tahminlerinden üstün olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmada ortaya konan bulguların, özellikle hedge amacı güden yatırımcılar için kaynak teşkil etmesi beklenmektedir.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.
Volume (Year): 24 (2009)
Issue (Month): 274 ()
Pages: 33-53
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Web page: http://iif.com.tr
Related research
Keywords: Vadeli İşlemler; Hedge Oranı; Hedge Etkinliği;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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