The Probabilistic Innovation Field of Scientific Enquiry

This paper outlines a developing stream of literature related to a theoretical framework, namely probabilistic innovation, relating it to certain literature critiquing developing academic fields and offering criteria against which a developing field can be held to be scientific or not. With ontological and epistemological roots in citizen science, participant-research and other emerging academic movements, probabilistic innovation theory is underpinned by a shift toward the democratisation of knowledge, increasing inclusivity and transparency in its processes, and a novel methodology drawing from methods such as expert crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, swarm solving and maximisation of efficiencies related to collaborations in research. With the enablement of real time research capability, or ability to solve serious scientific problems in hours and days instead of years and decades as its primary raison d'être, probabilistic innovation seeks to maximise probability of scientific breakthroughs. However, for this stream of literature to develop, it is important to proactively identify academic or scientific pitfalls facing developing areas of enquiry, and this paper attempts to offer this, deriving propositions potentially useful for developing fields in general. It is hoped real time research capability will one day become a reality, and to increase the likelihood of this, theoretical frameworks seeking this end need to face useful critique to ensure their robust development, and this paper proposed four core tensions such fields need to manage in order to successfully evolve.