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The Evolution Of World Trade In 2015 And The Prospects For 2016-2017

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  • Agnes Ghibuţiu

Abstract

This paper analyzes the developments in world trade in goods and services in 2015, as well asthe prospects for 2016-2017. It highlights both the main determinants and salient features ofmerchandise trade in 2015, and its dynamics in terms of volume and value. It also sheds light on thegeographical composition of merchandise trade and the major traders worldwide. Similarly, the paperoutlines the main trends shaping trade in services in 2015. According to the findings of the paper,2015 marked the fourth consecutive year in which trade growth has been disappointing, withtrade expanding less than 3%, and exceeding only marginally global GDP growth, unlike theyears before the crisis, when this ratio was almost 2:1. Given the cyclical and structuralfactors behind the recent slowdown in global trade, growth in the volume of worldmerchandise trade is likely to pick up only slightly over 2016-2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnes Ghibuţiu, 2016. "The Evolution Of World Trade In 2015 And The Prospects For 2016-2017," Impact of Socio-economic and Technological Transformations at National, European and International Level (ISETT), Institute for World Economy, Romanian Academy, vol. 12.
    • Handle: RePEc:iem:imptrs:v:12:y:2016:id:2822000009619003
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    File URL: http://www.iem.ro/rem/index.php/itset/article/view/263/334
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global trade; merchandise trade; trade in services; World Trade Organization (WTO); forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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