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Structural Real Exchange Rate and Unemployment Interdependencies in Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Eric J. Pentecost

    (Loughborough University (Loughborough, Reino Unido))

  • Fernando Zarzosa Valdivia

    (Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas ( Córdoba, Argentina))

Abstract

Based on a three-sector micro-founded model of a small open economy, this paper investigates the interdependences between the structural real exchange rate (defined as the relative prices tradable to non-tradable goods prices) and the unemployment rate with an application to Argentina. The empirical results suggest a significant, negative relationship between the structural real exchange rate and the rate of unemployment, suggesting that an appreciating real exchange rate may lead to Dutch disease effects – which effectively contract the size of the manufacturing sector – and damage long-term growth and employment opportunities. / Utilizando un modelo micro-fundamentado de tres sectores para una pequeña economía abierta, se analiza la interdependencia entre la tasa de cambio real estructural (definida como el cociente entre el precio de los bienes transables y el de los no transables) y la tasa de desempleo, aplicándolo al caso de Argentina. Los resultados empíricos sugieren una relación negativa y significativa entre el tipo de cambio real estructural y la tasa de desempleo, lo cual indicaría que frente a una apreciación del tipo de cambio real se puede producir un efecto del tipo enfermedad holandesa - contrayendo el sector productor de manufacturas - afectando negativamente las oportunidades de crecimiento y empleo en el largo plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric J. Pentecost & Fernando Zarzosa Valdivia, 2014. "Structural Real Exchange Rate and Unemployment Interdependencies in Argentina," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 52(1), pages 57-86, Diciembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ief:reveye:v:52:y:2014:i:1:p:57-86
    DOI: 10.55444/2451.7321.2014.v52.n1.14936
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural real exchange rate; unemployment rate; factor productivity; capital endowments; terms of trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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