Population dynamics, industrial development and the decline of the traditional agro-forest landscape on the Mediterranean urban fringe: a case study in Greece

The present study assesses population dynamics, urban growth and the changing economic structure in Thriasio, the main industrial area of Greece. Best-fit models using multinomial, exponential and Verhulst equations have been considered to estimate population dynamics, trends in the established activities and the consequent changes in land-use over time. Models indicate a continuous increase of both resident population and established activities, although the growth rate of both variables was found to be spatially heterogeneous. Land availability played an important role in the economic development of the area. Our results identify the socioeconomic context contributing to the unsustainable development of Thriasio, an industrial area affected by relevant environmental problems that determined a high fragility of the surrounding rural land. The present study proposes an original framework to analyse population and economic data together with land-use trends and planning measures. This information is considered important to set up sustainable land management strategies addressing the environmental and social fragility of industrial areas developed at the fringe of large cities.