Building scenarios for the integration of shared autonomous vehicles into multimodal shared mobility systems in Southeast Asia mega-urban regions

This research aims to manifest a holistic framework in scenario building for the integration of shared autonomous vehicles into multimodal shared mobility systems in two of Southeast Asia's mega-urban regions: Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City. This study proposed mixed methods of bibliometric analysis and spatial analysis to scan driving forces at the generic and place-based level. Critical uncertainties result from prioritising driving forces, which were used in framing scenarios. The four scenario quadrants in cross-impact analysis are formed by the intersection of two axes: the degree of government intervention and the degree of integration of mobility solutions. The results shed light on inherent mobility inequality issues and challenges in engaging a diverse range of stakeholders. The paper concludes with proposed strategic implications covering institutions, incentives, and infrastructures that contribute to social benefit, uphold market freedom, and support the emergence of urban mobility innovations.