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What drives short-term GCC stock market returns? Empirical evidence from fat-tailed distribution

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  • Ibrahim A. Onour

Abstract

Given that changes in oil prices influence the observable factors in GCC economies, this paper shows unobservable speculative factors that drive short-term stock market returns in Saudi and Bahrain markets. For other GCC markets, such as Dubai, Abu-Dhabi, and Muscat, oil price uncertainty and unobservable speculative factors work together, though in opposite directions, to influence stock prices. However, in the long term, only oil price changes prevail as a determinant of GCC stock prices. Long term is defined as the period of time required for the effect of oil price changes to transmit its influence to major macroeconomic indicators that influence the profitability of firms traded in GCC stock markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Inderscience Enterprises Ltd in its journal Afro-Asian J. of Finance and Accounting.

Volume (Year): 1 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 17-25

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Handle: RePEc:ids:afasfa:v:1:y:2008:i:1:p:17-25

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Web page: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=214

Related research

Keywords: GCC stock markets; stock market returns; short-term returns; fat-tailed distribution; speculation; Saudi Arabia; Bahrain; Dubai; Abu-Dhabi; Muscat; oil prices; stock prices; Gulf Cooperation Council.;

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Cited by:
  1. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les marchés boursiers dans les pays du Golfe," Working Papers hal-00507825, HAL.
  2. Onour, Ibrahim, 2010. "Crude Oil Prices and Stock Markets in Major Oil Exporting Countries: Evidence on Decoupling Feature," MPRA Paper 23334, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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