Conceptual Approach to Forecasting Demand
AbstractThe article considers a conceptual approach to forecasting demand on products of a production or trading company using economic and mathematical methods. It justifies importance of modelling and forecasting consumer demand on goods. It provides a classification of methods of forecasting demand in two dimensions: from subjective to objective ones and from na?ve to cause-effect ones. It systemises groups of factors that influence demand and analyses character of their influence. It develops a concept of forecasting demand on products of a company using economic and mathematical methods, which consists of four stages: identification of factors that influence demand, selection of mathematical dependence, check of adequacy and accuracy of the model and forecast of demand. It builds forecast demand models for a specific trading company: Brown's adaptive polynomial model of the first order; and two-factor model, demand in which depends on the price of a good and its changes. It checks adequacy of each model and performs forecast of demand on products of a company.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE), Kharkiv National University of Economics in its journal Business Inform.
Volume (Year): (2013)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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Web page: http://www.business-inform.net
demand; forecasting; demand function; income; price; modelling;
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