Commercial Relations Between Brazil and India: An Analysis of Trade Chain and the Challenger for the Coming Years

Brazil and India are distinct countries in many fields such as culture, politics and religion, but some similar characteristics are noted. When it comes to territorial extension and population, the two countries are classified as emerging and are currently members of the BRICS Summit. The proximity of countries has become evident in the 21st century, where they seek to achieve the same goal, a greater participation in the world order. The trade relationship between them aims at positive impacts on both economies. This paper seeks to present the characteristics of the Brazil-India trade relationship and its implications for Brazil. Part of the scope of this research was the study of the relationship between the Brazil-India Trade Chain and some macroeconomic variables of these countries, for that a nonlinear causality test was applied, and the Factorial Analysis (main components) was also used. Finally, three methodologies were applied to model and forecast the Trade Chain (cross-validated LASSO, Neural Networks and non-tuned Random Forest) and a comparison was made between the metric performances, thus generating a satisfactory result, where was it noted that India presents a growing share of its trade balance on the GDP, which makes this market attractive to Brazil, because there is a significant increase in commercial relations.