Projektion des Arbeitskräftebedarfs bis 2015 : Modellrechnungen auf Basis des IAB/INFORGE-Modells (Projection of the demand for labour up to 2015 : model calculations on the basis of the IAB/INFORGE model)
Lutz, Christian Meyer, Bernd Schnur, Peter () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) Zika, Gerd () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
Abstract
"Whilst in western Germany the number of employed is likely to increase by 1.2 to 1.3 million between 2000 and 2015, in other words there is light at the end of the tunnel, for eastern Germany there are no indications of a positive labour market development with dynamics of its own. On the contrary, under 'status-quo conditions' the number of employed in eastern Germany is likely to drop by 0.4 million in the period 2000-2015. This is the main finding of the latest IAB long-term projection on the basis of the IAB/ INFORGE model. This model depicts the goods market for the whole of Germany by sectors in a highly disaggregated form. Furthermore it is part of the international model association GLODYM, by means of which the economic interdependency of Germany with the rest of the world is taken into account. The new projection confirms in the main the secular trends of the sectoral development which have been observed in the past: - further losses in the employment shares of agriculture and forestry, mining and manufacturing; - increasing employment shares of the service industries (tertiary sector), where the greatest employment gains are expected in the business-related services. Long-term projections do not intend to and can not show the future. They should rather be included in political decisions in order to avoid foreseeable negative developments. Their 'self-destruction' can therefore actually be welcome. Chapter 1 describes very briefly the labour market development up to now in western and eastern Germany and points out the objectives and problems of the present projection of the demand for labour. The model philosophy of the INFORGE model used here and its model structure are described in more detail in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3 the results for the economy as a whole are explained as well as the basic assumptions on which they are based. The structural change that is behind this global projection is explained in Chapter 4. In Chapter 5 a short conclusion is drawn regarding the need for policy action which arises from the results." (author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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