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Intelligent Financial Forecasting, The key for a Successful Management

Author

Listed:
  • Logica Banica

    (University of Pitesti)

  • Daniela Pirvu

    (University of Pitesti)

  • Alina Hagiu

    (University of Pitesti)

Abstract

Given the prolonged economic crisis felt by entire business world, companies have turned to knowledge, processing and analyzing information as powerful tools of top management. IT market has provided business intelligence software, useful for companies in their effort to obtain current situation viewed from different angles, and projections that underpin decision-making strategy. In this article we focused on two goals: the presentation of the concept and the environment to realize a financial forecasting for a company, and the experiment itself which refers to the use of an existing software (trial free software GMDH Shell) to perform a case study of OMV company. Based on the financial consolidate statements of the OMV PETROM SA Company during 2005-2011, we applied various forecasting models in order to obtain a forecasting of financial indicators for 2012. We also made an assessment of the accuracy of predictions, comparing partial data published by the company in the first two semesters and we analyzed the mismatch causes.

Suggested Citation

  • Logica Banica & Daniela Pirvu & Alina Hagiu, 2012. "Intelligent Financial Forecasting, The key for a Successful Management," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 192-206, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:hur:ijaraf:v:2:y:2012:i:3:p:192-206
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting software; corporate management; financial indicators; time-series models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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