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Racionalidad De Las Previsiones Presupuestarias Y Comportamiento Estratégico. El Caso Español

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Author Info

  • Jordi Pons Novell

    ()
    (Universidad de Barcelona)

  • Albert Solé Ollé

    ()
    (Universidad de Barcelona)

Abstract

Este trabajo considera la calidad de las previsiones de las principales partidas de ingresos y gastos contempladas en los Presupuestos Generales del Estado desde la perspectiva de su racionalidad. En primer lugar, el trabajo estudia si las previsiones están sesgadas –i.e., si los errores de previsión son sistemáticamente positivos o negativos– y si son eficientes –i.e., los errores son debidos a una utilización deficiente de la información disponible durante la fase de elaboración–. En segundo lugar, se analiza la posibilidad de que la falta de racionalidad de las previsiones presupuestarias se derive de un comportamiento estratégico por parte del gobierno. La metodología utilizada para contrastar las diferentes hipótesis planteadas en el trabajo se basa en la aplicación, además de los procedimientos aplicados habitualmente en la literatura, de técnicas no paramétricas, que permiten soslayar la dificultad que entraña el disponer de un número limitado de observaciones de las diferentes variables consideradas en el análisis. Classification-JEL : E62, H77

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.

Volume (Year): 157 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2001:v:157:i:2:a:16

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Related research

Keywords: presupuestos; previsiones de ingresos y gastos; racionalidad;

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