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Econometric Analysis of Business Cycles: A Survey with the Application to the Composite Index in Japan

Author

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  • Ishihara, Tsunehiro
  • Watanabe, Toshiaki

Abstract

This article provides a comprehensive survey of the time series models employed for the econometric analysis of business cycles. In the first half, we explain the Markov switching (MS) model and its Bayesian estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We also survey the extensions of the MS model and the other econometric models for business cycles. In the latter half, we extend the MS model such that the error term follows the Student’s t-distribution, the error variance follows a stochastic volatility model, and structural changes are allowed. We apply these extended models as well as the simple MS model to the composite index in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Ishihara, Tsunehiro & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2015. "Econometric Analysis of Business Cycles: A Survey with the Application to the Composite Index in Japan," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 66(2), pages 145-168, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:ecorev:v:66:y:2015:i:2:p:145-168
    DOI: 10.15057/27510
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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