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Regional Business Cycles Leads and Lags in Japan: Analyses by Prefectural Composite Indexes

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  • Onodera, Takashi
  • Ueda, Atsuko
  • Asako, Kazumi

Abstract

This paper investigates the unique characteristics of leads and lags in regional business cycles versus the national one by employing prefectural composite indexes (CI), which are constructed from four common monthly economic indicators. We utilize a dynamic programing matching algorithm in identifying leads and lags of each prefectural CI vis-à-vis the national CI. Performance of the matching analysis looks fairly good, yet certain disparities remain for some prefectures. While we confirm the presence of regional spottiness, we find that leads and lags in timing of the business cycle are not a major source of fluctuations in the prefectural CIs and there does not seem to be any specific pattern in observed leads and lags.

Suggested Citation

  • Onodera, Takashi & Ueda, Atsuko & Asako, Kazumi, 2015. "Regional Business Cycles Leads and Lags in Japan: Analyses by Prefectural Composite Indexes," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 66(2), pages 127-144, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:ecorev:v:66:y:2015:i:2:p:127-144
    DOI: 10.15057/27508
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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