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ANALIZA UČINAKA NEKONVENCIONALNIH MJERA MONETARNE POLITIKE ECB-a NA NEJEDNAKOST I RASPODJELU DOHOTKA

Author

Listed:
  • Lea-Karla Matić

    (Ekonomski institut, Zagreb)

  • Ozana Nadoveza

    (Ekonomski fakultet, Sveučilište u Zagrebu & Hrvatska narodna banka)

Abstract

Ovaj rad analizira učinke nekonvencionalnih mjera monetarne politike Europske centralne banke (ECB) na nejednakost i (re)distribuciju dohotka u odabranim zemljama članicama eurozone. Pritom je rad fokusiran na empirijsko utvrđivanje učinaka nekonvencionalnih mjera monetarne politike ECB-a na odabrani skup makroekonomskih i financijskih indikatora za koje se smatra da imaju implikacije na (re)distribuciju dohotka, te na Gini koeficijent kao temeljnu mjeru ekonomske nejednakosti. Empirijska analiza provedena je u dva koraka. U prvom koraku se na razini eurozone identificira šok monetarne politike ECB-a primjenom strukturnog vektorskog autoregresijskog modela (SVAR) s restrikcijama predznaka. U drugom koraku se identificirani šok monetarne politike ECB-a integrira u VAR modele pojedinačnih zemalja. Na temelju provedene analize zaključuje se da nekonvencionalne mjere monetarne politike ECB-a više povećavaju cijene dionica nego plaće u svim analiziranim zemljama. Uz pretpostavku da nadnice čine relativno veći udio u raspoloživom dohotku stanovništva slabijeg imovinskog stanja u odnosu na imućnije stanovništvo, temeljem ovih rezultata bi se moglo zaključiti da nekonvencionalne mjere ECB-a povećavaju nejednakosti unutar zemalja. Međutim, analiza učinaka monetarne politike ECB-a na nejednakosti mjerene Gini koeficijentom ne potvrđuje ovaj zaključak, ali ga ni ne opovrgava. Pritom je pozitivan efekt ekspanzivnog monetarnog šoka na dohotke od rada i kapitala kvantitativno veći u periferiji eurozone u odnosu na odabrane zemlje centra. Iako bi ovakav rezultat implicirao da nekonvencionalne mjere ECB-a doprinose smanjenju nejednakosti među analiziranim zemljama centra i periferije, u analizi se nailazi i na oprečne rezultate.

Suggested Citation

  • Lea-Karla Matić & Ozana Nadoveza, 2023. "ANALIZA UČINAKA NEKONVENCIONALNIH MJERA MONETARNE POLITIKE ECB-a NA NEJEDNAKOST I RASPODJELU DOHOTKA," Ekonomski pregled, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists), vol. 74(4), pages 487-514.
    • Handle: RePEc:hde:epregl:v:74:y:2023:i:4:p:487-514
    DOI: 10.32910/ep.74.4.1
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    Keywords

    nekonvencionalna monetarna politika; Europska centralna banka; nejednakosti i distribucija; Gini koeficijent; strukturni vektorski autoregresijski model (SVAR);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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