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The Impact of Migration on Forecasting Budget Expenditures on Education: The Sustainability Context

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  • Tetiana Zatonatska

    (Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University, 03-022 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Olena Liashenko

    (Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University, 03-022 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Yana Fareniuk

    (Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University, 03-022 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Łukasz Skowron

    (Faculty of Management, Lublin University of Technology, 20-618 Lublin, Poland)

  • Tomasz Wołowiec

    (Institute of Public Administration and Business, WSEI University, 20-209 Lublin, Poland)

  • Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi

    (Institute of Public Administration and Business, WSEI University, 20-209 Lublin, Poland
    Faculty of Economics and Management, West Ukrainian National University, 46-020 Ternopil, Ukraine)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of migration and changes in the population’s age structure on government expenditures on education in Ukraine. The cohort method, considering a group of people attending four main types of education, namely, preschool, general secondary, vocational and technical, and higher education, is used to analyze and forecast government expenditures in the medium and long term. The study results show that migration significantly impacts government budget expenditures on education, with the most significant impact being seen on preschool education, followed by higher education, while the impact on general secondary and vocational education is minimal. The number of people receiving education in one of the four main types of institutions funded by state and local budgets was predicted to gradually decrease during the forecast period, except for secondary and vocational education. The overall volume of state expenditures would gradually decrease, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP. Improving educational processes and the quality of budget spending should become an area for state regulation to ensure quality education in all funding conditions. This research’s leading theoretical and practical results show the efficiency of this methodology for analyzing and forecasting budget expenditures on education. They can be helpful in the short and medium terms, considering all potential changes in demographic indicators regarding the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Tetiana Zatonatska & Olena Liashenko & Yana Fareniuk & Łukasz Skowron & Tomasz Wołowiec & Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi, 2023. "The Impact of Migration on Forecasting Budget Expenditures on Education: The Sustainability Context," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:21:p:15473-:d:1271455
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maciej Duszczyk & Agata Górny & Paweł Kaczmarczyk & Andrzej Kubisiak, 2023. "War refugees from Ukraine in Poland – one year after the Russian aggression. Socioeconomic consequences and challenges," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 181-199, February.
    2. Grazyna Kozun-Cieslak, 2022. "How Does Ukraine Deal with the Efficiency of Public Spending on Education Compared to European Union Countries?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 1008-1024.
    3. Debora Di Gioacchino & Laura Sabani & Stefano Usai, 2022. "Intergenerational Upward (Im)mobility and Political Support of Public Education Spending," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(1), pages 49-76, March.
    4. Marwa Sahnoun & Chokri Abdennadher, 2022. "Returns to Investment in Education in the OECD Countries: Does Governance Quality Matter?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(3), pages 1819-1842, September.
    5. Esa Karonen & Mikko Niemelä, 2022. "Necessity-Rich, Leisure-Poor: The Long-Term Relationship Between Income Cohorts and Consumption Through Age-Period-Cohort Analysis," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 599-620, September.
    6. Olga Samoshkina & Iryna Adamenko, 2019. "Budget expenditures as an instrument for demographic development," University Economic Bulletin, Hryhorii Skovoroda University in Pereiaslav, Faculty of Financial, Economic and Vocational Education, issue 41, pages 202-212, March.
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