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Assessing the Impact of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2020 Coronavirus Epidemic: An Advanced Epidemic Model Based on Human Mobility

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  • Xiaofei Ye

    (Ningbo Port Trade Cooperation and Development Collaborative Innovation Center, Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Fenghua Road 818#, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Yi Zhu

    (Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Fenghua Road 818#, Ningbo 315211, China)

  • Tao Wang

    (School of Architecture and Transportation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Jinji Road 1#, Guilin 541004, China)

  • Xingchen Yan

    (College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China)

  • Jun Chen

    (School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China)

  • Pengjun Zheng

    (Ningbo Port Trade Cooperation and Development Collaborative Innovation Center, Faculty of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Fenghua Road 818#, Ningbo 315211, China)

Abstract

Infectious disease transmission can be greatly influenced by human mobility. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese Government implemented travel restriction policies to mitigate the impact of the disease or even block the transmission chain of it. In order to quantify the impact of these policies on the number of infections and the peak time of transmission, this research modified the traditional SIR model by considering human mobility. The proposed model was validated using a Baidu Qianxi dataset and the results indicate that the number of total infections would have increased by 1.61 to 2.69 times the current value and the peak time would have moved forward by 3 to 8 days if there were no such restriction policies. Furthermore, a mixing index α added in the proposed model showed that the proportion of residents using public transport to travel between different areas had a positive relationship with the number of infections and the duration of the epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaofei Ye & Yi Zhu & Tao Wang & Xingchen Yan & Jun Chen & Pengjun Zheng, 2023. "Assessing the Impact of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2020 Coronavirus Epidemic: An Advanced Epidemic Model Based on Human Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:16:p:12597-:d:1220851
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reiner Eichenberger & Rainer Hegselmann & David Savage & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Certified Corona-Immunity as a Resource and Strategy to Cope with Pandemic Costs," CREMA Working Paper Series 2020-03, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    2. Reiner Eichenberger & Rainer Hegselmann & David A. Savage & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Certified Coronavirus Immunity as a Resource and Strategy to Cope with Pandemic Costs," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 464-474, August.
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