IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i3p922-d204995.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Crop Loss in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Xu

    (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xiaodong Ming

    (School of Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK)

  • Yunjia Ma

    (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xinhang Zhang

    (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Peijun Shi

    (Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Li Zhuo

    (Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China)

  • Bingqiang Lu

    (Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanning 530007, China)

Abstract

Due to their complexity, hazard interactions are often neglected in current studies of multi-hazard risk assessment. As a result, the assessment results are qualitative or semi-quantitative and are difficult to use in regional risk management. In this paper, the crop loss risk due to heavy rain and strong wind in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China was quantitatively assessed, based on the joint return periods of these hazards and a vulnerability surface. The joint return period is obtained with a copula function based on the marginal distribution of each hazard. The vulnerability is fitted by considering the joint hazard intensity, the sown area of crops, elevation, and GDP per capita. The results show that counties with a high value of joint hazard probability are clustered in the southeast coastal area and that the value gradually decreases from south to north and from east to west. The multi-hazard risk has a similar pattern, with a large value in the southeast coastal area and a low value in the northwest. The proposed method can be used for quantitative assessment of multi-hazard risk, and the results can be used for regional disaster risk management and planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xu & Xiaodong Ming & Yunjia Ma & Xinhang Zhang & Peijun Shi & Li Zhuo & Bingqiang Lu, 2019. "Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Crop Loss in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:922-:d:204995
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/3/922/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/3/922/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mario Ordaz, 2015. "A simple probabilistic model to combine losses arising from the simultaneous occurrence of several hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 389-396, March.
    2. Melanie Kappes & Margreth Keiler & Kirsten Elverfeldt & Thomas Glade, 2012. "Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1925-1958, November.
    3. Baoyin Liu & Yim Siu & Gordon Mitchell & Wei Xu, 2013. "Exceedance probability of multiple natural hazards: risk assessment in China’s Yangtze River Delta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 2039-2055, December.
    4. Ning Li & Xueqin Liu & Wei Xie & Jidong Wu & Peng Zhang, 2013. "The Return Period Analysis of Natural Disasters with Statistical Modeling of Bivariate Joint Probability Distribution," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 134-145, January.
    5. Maxx Dilley & Robert S. Chen & Uwe Deichmann & Arthur L. Lerner-Lam & Margaret Arnold, 2005. "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7376, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fei Su & Jiaqi Luo & Hang Liu & Lei Tong & Yuan Li, 2022. "Assessment and Promotion Strategy of Rural Resilience in Yangtze River Delta Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-21, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher T. Emrich & Yao Zhou & Sanam K. Aksha & Herbert E. Longenecker, 2022. "Creating a Nationwide Composite Hazard Index Using Empirically Based Threat Assessment Approaches Applied to Open Geospatial Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Casey Zuzak & Matthew Mowrer & Emily Goodenough & Jordan Burns & Nicholas Ranalli & Jesse Rozelle, 2022. "The national risk index: establishing a nationwide baseline for natural hazard risk in the US," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 2331-2355, November.
    3. Giovanni Forzieri & Luc Feyen & Simone Russo & Michalis Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Alfieri & Stephen Outten & Mirco Migliavacca & Alessandra Bianchi & Rodrigo Rojas & Alba Cid, 2016. "Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 105-119, July.
    4. Alessandro D’Amico & Martina Russo & Marco Angelosanti & Gabriele Bernardini & Donatella Vicari & Enrico Quagliarini & Edoardo Currà, 2021. "Built Environment Typologies Prone to Risk: A Cluster Analysis of Open Spaces in Italian Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-32, August.
    5. Yang Zhou & Yansui Liu & Wenxiang Wu & Ning Li, 2015. "Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 257-280, August.
    6. M. Budimir & P. Atkinson & H. Lewis, 2014. "Earthquake-and-landslide events are associated with more fatalities than earthquakes alone," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 895-914, June.
    7. Valentina Gallina & Silvia Torresan & Alex Zabeo & Andrea Critto & Thomas Glade & Antonio Marcomini, 2020. "A Multi-Risk Methodology for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Coastal Zones," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-28, May.
    8. Changhong Zhou & Mu Chen & Jiangtao Chen & Yu Chen & Wenwu Chen, 2024. "A Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Model for a Road Network Based on Neural Networks and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, March.
    9. Gustavo Barrantes, 2018. "Multi-hazard model for developing countries," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 1081-1095, June.
    10. Pilar Baquedano Julià & Tiago Miguel Ferreira, 2021. "From single- to multi-hazard vulnerability and risk in Historic Urban Areas: a literature review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 93-128, August.
    11. Ran Wang & Laiyin Zhu & Han Yu & Shujuan Cui & Jing’ai Wang, 2016. "Automatic Type Recognition and Mapping of Global Tropical Cyclone Disaster Chains (TDC)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    12. Baoyin Liu & Yim Ling Siu & Gordon Mitchell & Wei Xu, 2016. "The danger of mapping risk from multiple natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 139-153, May.
    13. Chaofeng Shao & Juan Yang & Xiaogang Tian & Meiting Ju & Lei Huang, 2013. "Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-22, April.
    14. Siyi Liu & Xin Liu & Chuancai Zhang & Lingli Zhang, 2023. "Institutional and individual investors' short‐term reactions to the COVID‐19 crisis in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 4333-4355, December.
    15. Dapeng Huang & Renhe Zhang & Zhiguo Huo & Fei Mao & Youhao E & Wei Zheng, 2012. "An assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability at the provincial scale in China based on the DEA method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1575-1586, November.
    16. Viet-Ha Nhu & Ataollah Shirzadi & Himan Shahabi & Sushant K. Singh & Nadhir Al-Ansari & John J. Clague & Abolfazl Jaafari & Wei Chen & Shaghayegh Miraki & Jie Dou & Chinh Luu & Krzysztof Górski & Binh, 2020. "Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Comparison between Logistic Model Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes Tree, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine Algorithms," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-30, April.
    17. Jun Wang & Zhenlou Chen & Shiyuan Xu & Beibei Hu, 2013. "Medium-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1205-1220, March.
    18. Jolanta Kryspin-Watson & John Pollner & Sonja Nieuwejaar, 2008. "Climate Change Adaptation in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Reports 25985, The World Bank Group.
    19. Fatemeh Jalayer & Raffaele Risi & Francesco Paola & Maurizio Giugni & Gaetano Manfredi & Paolo Gasparini & Maria Topa & Nebyou Yonas & Kumelachew Yeshitela & Alemu Nebebe & Gina Cavan & Sarah Lindley , 2014. "Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 975-1001, September.
    20. Faraz S. Tehrani & Michele Calvello & Zhongqiang Liu & Limin Zhang & Suzanne Lacasse, 2022. "Machine learning and landslide studies: recent advances and applications," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1197-1245, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:922-:d:204995. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.