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Effects of Non-Stationarity on Flood Frequency Analysis: Case Study of the Cheongmicheon Watershed in South Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Sang Ug Kim

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea)

  • Minwoo Son

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Chungnam National University, Daejeon 34134, Korea)

  • Eun-Sung Chung

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea)

  • Xiao Yu

    (Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA)

Abstract

Due to global climate change, it is possible to experience the new trend of flood in the near future. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the impact of climate change on flood when establishing sustainable water resources management policy. In order to predict the future flood events, the frequency analysis is commonly applied. Traditional methods for flood frequency analysis are based on the assumption of stationarity, which is questionable under the climate change, although many techniques that are based on stationarity have been developed. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and compare all of the corresponding effects of three different data sets (observed, RCP 4.5, and 8.5), two different frequency models (stationary and non-stationary), and two different frequency analysis procedures (rainfall frequency first approach and direct discharge approach). As a result, the design flood from the observed data by the stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach can be concluded the most reasonable. Thus, the design flood from the RCP 8.5 by the non-stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach should be carefully used for the establishment of flood prevention measure while considering climate change and uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Sang Ug Kim & Minwoo Son & Eun-Sung Chung & Xiao Yu, 2018. "Effects of Non-Stationarity on Flood Frequency Analysis: Case Study of the Cheongmicheon Watershed in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:5:p:1329-:d:143145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Christine Wamsler & Ebba Brink, 2014. "Planning for Climatic Extremes and Variability: A Review of Swedish Municipalities’ Adaptation Responses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hsiao-Ping Wei & Yuan-Fong Su & Chao-Tzuen Cheng & Keh-Chia Yeh, 2020. "Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-12, June.
    2. Jin Hyuck Kim & Jang Hyun Sung & Eun-Sung Chung & Sang Ug Kim & Minwoo Son & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, 2021. "Comparison of Projection in Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in the Cheongmicheon Watershed for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-22, February.

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