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Valuation of Large Variable Annuity Portfolios Using Linear Models with Interactions

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  • Guojun Gan

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-1009, USA)

Abstract

A variable annuity is a popular life insurance product that comes with financial guarantees. Using Monte Carlo simulation to value a large variable annuity portfolio is extremely time-consuming. Metamodeling approaches have been proposed in the literature to speed up the valuation process. In metamodeling, a metamodel is first fitted to a small number of variable annuity contracts and then used to predict the values of all other contracts. However, metamodels that have been investigated in the literature are sophisticated predictive models. In this paper, we investigate the use of linear regression models with interaction effects for the valuation of large variable annuity portfolios. Our numerical results show that linear regression models with interactions are able to produce accurate predictions and can be useful additions to the toolbox of metamodels that insurance companies can use to speed up the valuation of large VA portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Guojun Gan, 2018. "Valuation of Large Variable Annuity Portfolios Using Linear Models with Interactions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:71-:d:157549
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hejazi, Seyed Amir & Jackson, Kenneth R., 2016. "A neural network approach to efficient valuation of large portfolios of variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 169-181.
    2. Xu, Wei & Chen, Yuehuan & Coleman, Conrad & Coleman, Thomas F., 2018. "Moment matching machine learning methods for risk management of large variable annuity portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Seyed Amir Hejazi & Kenneth R. Jackson, 2016. "A Neural Network Approach to Efficient Valuation of Large Portfolios of Variable Annuities," Papers 1606.07831, arXiv.org.
    4. Guojun Gan & X. Sheldon Lin, 2017. "Efficient Greek Calculation of Variable Annuity Portfolios for Dynamic Hedging: A Two-Level Metamodeling Approach," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 161-177, April.
    5. Gan, Guojun & Lin, X. Sheldon, 2015. "Valuation of large variable annuity portfolios under nested simulation: A functional data approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 138-150.
    6. Seyed Amir Hejazi & Kenneth R. Jackson & Guojun Gan, 2017. "A Spatial Interpolation Framework for Efficient Valuation of Large Portfolios of Variable Annuities," Papers 1701.04134, arXiv.org.
    7. Boyle, Phelim P. & Hardy, Mary R., 1997. "Reserving for maturity guarantees: Two approaches," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 113-127, November.
    8. Guojun Gan & Emiliano A. Valdez, 2018. "Regression Modeling for the Valuation of Large Variable Annuity Portfolios," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 40-54, January.
    9. Gan, Guojun, 2013. "Application of data clustering and machine learning in variable annuity valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 795-801.
    10. Ming Yuan & Yi Lin, 2006. "Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(1), pages 49-67, February.
    11. Gan Guojun & Valdez Emiliano A., 2016. "An empirical comparison of some experimental designs for the valuation of large variable annuity portfolios," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Doyle & Chris Groendyke, 2018. "Using Neural Networks to Price and Hedge Variable Annuity Guarantees," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Wing Fung Chong & Haoen Cui & Yuxuan Li, 2021. "Pseudo-Model-Free Hedging for Variable Annuities via Deep Reinforcement Learning," Papers 2107.03340, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    3. Dong, Bing & Xu, Wei & Sevic, Aleksandar & Sevic, Zeljko, 2020. "Efficient willow tree method for variable annuities valuation and risk management☆," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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