A Novel Method for Predicting the Behavior of a Sucker Rod Pumping Unit Based on the Polished Rod Velocity

Fault dynamometer cards are the basis of the diagnosis technique for sucker rod pumping systems. Predicting fault cards with a pumping condition model is an economical and effective method. The usual model is described by a mixed function of the pump displacement and pump load, and it is difficult to use in the prediction method based on the analytical solution of the sucker rod string wave equation. In this paper, a normal pumping condition model described by a function of polished rod velocity is proposed. For the analytical solution of the sucker rod wave equation, an iterative prediction algorithm with pumping condition models is proposed, its convergence is analyzed, and then it is validated by classical finite difference method simulated cards and measured surface dynamometer cards. The results show that the proposed algorithm is accurate. The algorithm has a maximum relative error of 0.10% for the classical method simulated card area and 1.45% for the measured card area. The research of this paper provides an effective scheme for the design, prediction, and fault diagnosis of a sucker rod pumping system with an analytical solution.