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Modelling Seasonal Short-Run Effects in Time-Series Tourism Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Sergej Gricar

    (Faculty of Business and Management Science, University of Novo Mesto, Na Loko 2, SI-8000 Novo Mesto, Slovenia
    Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, The University of Rijeka, Naselje Ika, Primorska 46, HR-51410 Opatija, Croatia)

  • Stefan Bojnec

    (Faculty of Management, University of Primorska, Izolska Vrata 2, SI-6101 Koper, Slovenia)

Abstract

The paper’s primary purpose is to better monitor shocks; therefore, reliable scientific methods should be used to predict, monitor, and implement those events. In this paper, tourism prices are studied as an economic, I ( 2 ) and social phenomenon for better performance. The selection of inadequacies in price time series is analysed. The state-of-the-art proposed methodology step of nominal to real prices is based on monthly data using the cointegrated-vector-autoregressive model (CVAR). This is the key feature selection on time-series properties in the economy and supported software(s). An attempt at a CVAR model with five seasonally unadjusted macroeconomic variables is developed. It introduces a meaningful, genuine and indispensable new data vector of transformed variables, and this stepwise process is more appropriate against the wrong model specification. The results for the period of economic crises show that the proposed model is reliable from nominal to real prices, and the researchers implement normality to price modelling in its econometric mock-up phase. Overall, the proposed model predicts testable events for up to 48-months.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergej Gricar & Stefan Bojnec, 2022. "Modelling Seasonal Short-Run Effects in Time-Series Tourism Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:5:p:212-:d:809777
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    References listed on IDEAS

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