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Assessing the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Consumer Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Zuccarelli

    (The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
    Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA)

  • Laura Seaman

    (The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA)

  • Kevin Rader

    (Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA)

Abstract

The initial outbreak of COVID-19 during late December 2019 and the subsequent global pandemic markedly changed consumer mobility patterns worldwide, largely in response to government-ordered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study, we investigate these changes as they relate to the initial spread of COVID-19 within two states—Massachusetts and Michigan. Specifically, we use linear and generalized linear mixed-effects models to quantify the relationship between four NPIs and individuals’ point-of-sale (POS) credit card transactions, as well as the relationship between subsequent changes in POS transactions and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Our analysis reveals a significant negative association between NPIs and daily POS transactions, particularly a dose–response relationship, in which stringent workplace closures, stay-at-home requirements, and gathering restrictions were all associated with decreased POS transactions. We also uncover a significant positive association between 12-day lagged changes in POS transactions compared to pre-pandemic baselines and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Overall, our study supports previous findings that early NPIs reduced human mobility and COVID-19 transmission in the US, providing policymakers with quantitative evidence concerning the effectiveness of NPIs.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Zuccarelli & Laura Seaman & Kevin Rader, 2024. "Assessing the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Consumer Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the US," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(1), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:1:p:67-:d:1314675
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xue Zhang & Mildred E. Warner, 2020. "COVID-19 Policy Differences across US States: Shutdowns, Reopening, and Mask Mandates," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Yun Li & Moming Li & Megan Rice & Haoyuan Zhang & Dexuan Sha & Mei Li & Yanfang Su & Chaowei Yang, 2021. "The Impact of Policy Measures on Human Mobility, COVID-19 Cases, and Mortality in the US: A Spatiotemporal Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Coilín ÓhAiseadha & Gerry A. Quinn & Ronan Connolly & Awwad Wilson & Michael Connolly & Willie Soon & Paul Hynds, 2023. "Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for Population Health and Health Inequalities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(7), pages 1-40, March.
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