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The Lag Effects and Vulnerabilities of Temperature Effects on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in a Subtropical Climate Zone in China

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  • Jixia Huang

    (State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jinfeng Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Weiwei Yu

    (School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4059, Australia)

Abstract

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Suggested Citation

  • Jixia Huang & Jinfeng Wang & Weiwei Yu, 2014. "The Lag Effects and Vulnerabilities of Temperature Effects on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in a Subtropical Climate Zone in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:4:p:3982-3994:d:35027
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    1. Francesca Dominici & Aidan M.C. Dermott & Trevor J. Hastie, 2004. "Improved Semiparametric Time Series Models of Air Pollution and Mortality," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 938-948, December.
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    2. Christian F. Juna & Yoon Hee Cho & Dongwoo Ham & Hyojee Joung, 2020. "Associations of Relative Humidity and Lifestyles with Metabolic Syndrome among the Ecuadorian Adult Population: Ecuador National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT-ECU) 2012," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Risto Conte Keivabu, 2022. "Extreme Temperature and Mortality by Educational Attainment in Spain, 2012–2018," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 1145-1182, December.
    4. Chisato Imai & Adrian G. Barnett & Masahiro Hashizume & Yasushi Honda, 2016. "The Role of Influenza in the Delay between Low Temperature and Ischemic Heart Disease: Evidence from Simulation and Mortality Data from Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, April.
    5. Xunfeng Yang & Lianfa Li & Jinfeng Wang & Jixia Huang & Shijun Lu, 2015. "Cardiovascular Mortality Associated with Low and High Temperatures: Determinants of Inter-Region Vulnerability in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, May.

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