Modernization Roadmaps for Existing Buildings under Limited Energy Resources and Craftwork Capacities

Great potential for saving carbon emissions lies in modernizing European buildings. Multi-year modernization roadmaps can plan modernization measures in terms of time and are able to consider temporal interactions. Therefore, we have developed a mixed-integer program that determines modernization roadmaps. These roadmaps include changing the energy supply system, improving the envelope, and considering annually varying boundary conditions. High craftwork capacities are required to implement the necessary modernizations to meet climate goals. Unfortunately, studies showed that the current shortage of craftworkers will intensify in the next years. Other important limitations correspond to energy resources. Recent crises show that many energy systems need to handle these limitations. Therefore, we extended the mixed-integer program by a method to handle these limitations inside the roadmaps. By the use of data from 90 interviews with craftwork specialists about the time needed to realize modernization measures, the method is applied. The main purpose is to analyze how modernization strategies change under limited resources, especially in terms of craftwork capacities. Hence, the method is exemplified by a representative single-family dwelling. Within this use case, modernization roadmaps with different craftwork capacity levels were calculated. The results show that modernization roadmaps change comprehensively over these levels. Key findings are that costs and emissions rise with decreasing craftwork capacities. Furthermore, smaller storages and pv systems are implemented at low craftwork capacities. The electrification of the heat supply supported by medium insulation standards should also be implemented with limited craftwork capacities.