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Pass-Through Effect: Rise In Prices In Q3 Will Slow Down

Author

Listed:
  • Ponomarev Yuri

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

The analysis of consumer prices dynamics and the forecast based on the model of exchange rate pass-through effect indicates that n the Q3 2016, one should not expect significant inflation growth. The forecast of price dynamics in consumer segments is quite hetero geneous: the prices of non-food products will grow more (4.9% relative to December 2015) than the prices of foodproducts (3.4% relative to December2015), while in the latter group, the biggest growth will be observed in products with a significant share of imports among them ( fish and seafood, sugar, sunflower oil). If expectations concerning the increase in prices are met and the dynamics of inflation projected for Q3 2016 continues until the end of the year, the level of inflation can stay at 6.5–7% per annum.

Suggested Citation

  • Ponomarev Yuri, 2016. "Pass-Through Effect: Rise In Prices In Q3 Will Slow Down," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 8, pages 13-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:recdev-2016-8-711
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    File Function: Revised version, 2016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Russian Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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