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Brexit Results: Macroeconomic Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Trunin Pavel

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Goryunov Evgeny

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Kiyutsevskaya Anna

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

The United Kingdom’s poten al exit from the EU poses a number of macroeconomic risks. Considering the overall growth of uncertainty, the recession in the UK cannot be ruled out. The decline in capital inflows to the UK economy can be predicted, which could pose a threat to the stability of the balance of payments and the exchange rate of the British Pound. Obviously, the exchange of goods and services between the UK and the EU will suffer, as well as labour mobility and the British labour market. According to various estimates, Britain can lose up to 5% of GDP as a result of capital outflows and shrinking interna onal trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Trunin Pavel & Goryunov Evgeny & Kiyutsevskaya Anna, 2016. "Brexit Results: Macroeconomic Risks," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 7, pages 51-53, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:recdev-2016-7-689
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    File Function: Revised version, 2016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY; Russian Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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