Federal Budget Execution for January-October 2023: The Situation is better than Expected[Исполнение Федерального Бюджета За Январь-Октябрь 2023 Г.: Ситуация Лучше Ожидаемой]

The dynamic of federal budget revenues in January-October 2023 in comparison with the same period of the previous year was multidirectional: the growth of non-oil and gas revenues by 2.1 p.p. of GDP was followed by a decrease in rent revenues by 2.8 p.p. of GDP. The related increase in public expenditures by 0.7 p.p. of GDP in the first 10 months of 2023 as compared to the same period of 2022, although it slightly increased the federal budget imbalance as compared to the corresponding values of the previous year (increase in the budget deficit by 1.4 p.p. of GDP), but there is no noticeable increase in the risks of short-term budget instability. At the end of the current year, due to the adjustment of taxation of the oil and gas sector, which makes it possible to prevent a further decline in rent revenues, preservation of the dynamics of VAT revenues outstripping the GDP growth rate, as well as incomplete utilization of the planned annual volume of expenditures, a budget deficit in the range of Rb2–2,5 trillion can be expected. If the planned volume of expenditures is achieved, the deficit may exceed this level.