Health Expenditure Forecast in Russia up to 2030

Health expenditures in Russia are significantly lower than in developed countries (5,6 vs. 10,0 % GDP), while private/total expenditure ratio is significantly higher (38 vs. 25 %), which both deteriorate quality and equal access to health services. However, according to Russian and foreign data, total health expenditures tend to increase in time. Employing official demographic and economic forecast we developed two scenarios for future health expenditures in Russia up to 2030: (1) accelerated scenario, which assumes increase in equity of access to healthcare compared to 2015, and (2) conservative scenario, which assumes current level of equality. Accelerated scenario predicts health expenditures to increase by 2030 to 7,8 % GDP, and conservative scenario — to 5,8 % GDP. In both scenarios the Compulsory Health Insurance Fund would run with significant deficit that could not be fully covered by measures provided by current legislation. In current economic situation government health expenditures could be even lower than it would be in conservative scenario. Given no reforms, targeting health system inefficiency, this would result in lower quality and equality of healthcare, compared to 2015 levels.