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Effect of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on the Fiscal Revenues

Author

Listed:
  • Alexey I. Balaev

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow 107031, Russia)

  • Evsey T. Gurvich

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow 107031, Russia; Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia)

  • Ilya V. Prilepskiy

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow 107031, Russia)

  • Alexandra L. Suslina

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

High sensitivity of fiscal revenues to external conditions resulting from the Russian economy's dependence on commodity exports creates a major challenge for budget planning and execution. The paper studies the mechanisms determining the impact of oil prices and exchange rate on government revenues. This analysis provides quantitative estimates of adjustments in nominal and real (adjusted to changes in inflation) revenues caused by an increase and decrease of oil prices by 1 dollar per barrel and exchange rate by the 1 ruble per dollar taking into account both direct and indirect effects of these shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexey I. Balaev & Evsey T. Gurvich & Ilya V. Prilepskiy & Alexandra L. Suslina, 2014. "Effect of Oil Price and Exchange Rate on the Fiscal Revenues," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 5-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:140101:p:5-16
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ilya V. Prilepskiy, 2018. "Impact of Fiscal Rules on Exchange Rate Volatility," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 9-20, December.
    2. Prilepskiy, I., 2019. "Financial Sanctions: Impact on Capital flows and GDP Growth in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 163-172.
    3. Malkina, M. Yu., 2018. "The determinants of budget revenues of Russian regions," R-Economy, Ural Federal University, Graduate School of Economics and Management, vol. 4(3), pages 95-104.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; budget revenues; oil price; exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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