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President's Message: A Forecasting Personality Test

Author

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  • Tom Barkin

Abstract

Contrary to most forecasts, includ­ing my own, the economy finished 2023 strong. Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, came down all the way to 2.6 percent. At the same time, despite higher interest rates, global conflicts, and banking turmoil, economic growth was healthy and unemployment was near historic lows. But early 2024 data has been a little less easy to read, with inflation elevated and consumer spending coming in softer, while the labor market has remained quite strong. So it's easy to see why people might differ on the path forward for the economy — each fore­caster sees the future through his or her own lens. You likely do the same.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Barkin, 2024. "President's Message: A Forecasting Personality Test," Econ Focus, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 24(1Q/2Q), pages 1-1, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrrf:98088
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    Keywords

    inflation; monetary policy;

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