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Rethinking the value of initial claims as a forecasting tool

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Author Info
Margaret M. McConnell
Abstract

The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:1998:i:nov:n:v.4no.11

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Related research
Keywords: Unemployment insurance ; Forecasting ; Employment (Economic theory);

Cited by:
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  1. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2002. "Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 15-28. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61. [Downloadable!]
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