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Explaining the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate

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Author Info

  • Daniel Aaronson
  • Jonathan Davis
  • Luojia Hu

Abstract

The authors conclude that just under half of the post-1999 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate, or LFPR (the proportion of the working-age population that is employed or unemployed and seeking work), can be explained by long-running demographic patterns, such as the retirement of baby boomers. These patterns are expected to continue, offsetting LFPR improvements due to economic recovery.

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File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/chicago_fed_letter/2012/cflmarch2012_296.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Chicago Fed Letter.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhle:y:2012:i:mar:n:296

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Related research

Keywords: Labor market - United States;

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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Monetary or fiscal stimulus can help only if unemployment is cyclical; otherwise, if unemployment is structural expansionary policies will lead only to inflation. Careful recent analyses indicate that unemployment is mainly cyclical in the US
    by Blog Admin in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2012-10-24 16:00:33
  2. Given the enormity of the short- and long-run fiscal challenges facing the US, the lack of policy detail from both presidential candidates is disappointing
    by Blog Admin in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2012-10-25 13:00:36
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Cited by:
  1. Régis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2013. "Declining labor force attachment and downward trends in unemployment and participation," Economics Working Papers 1397, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Dave Reifschneider & William Wascher & David Wilcox, 2013. "Aggregate supply in the United States: recent developments and implications for the conduct of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Kudlyak, Marianna, 2013. "A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1, pages 25-43.
  4. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2012. "A closer look at nonparticipants during and after the Great Recession," Working Paper 2012-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States Labor Market: Status Quo or A New Normal?," NBER Working Papers 18386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States Labor Market: Status Quo or A New Normal?," Working Papers 12-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  7. Bullard, James B., 2014. "The rise and fall of labor force participation in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 1-12.
  8. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2013. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function," Working Papers 727, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  9. Michelle L. Barnes & Fabià Gumbau-Brisa & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2013. "Cyclical versus secular: decomposing the recent decline in U.S. labor force participation," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  10. John C. Williams, 2012. "The economic outlook: global and domestic challenges to growth," Speech 105, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Bullard, James B., 2014. "The rise and fall of labor force participation in the U.S," Speech 227, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. repec:fip:fedfsp:y:2012:i:june6 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Mark E Schweitzer & Murat Tasci, 2013. "What constitutes substantial employment gains in today’s labor market?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jun.
  14. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
  15. Barnichon, Regis & Figura, Andrew, 2013. "Declining Labor Force Attachment and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-88, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Leila Bengali & Mary Daly & Rob Valletta, 2013. "Will labor force participation bounce back?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may13.

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