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Where Is Shelter Inflation Headed?

Author

Listed:
  • Augustus Kmetz
  • Schuyler Louie
  • John Mondragon

Abstract

Shelter inflation has remained high even as other components of inflation have fallen. However, various market indicators, including house prices and rents, suggest that the housing market has slowed significantly with the rise in interest rates. Forecasting models that combine several measures of local shelter and rent inflation can help explain how recent trends might affect the path of future shelter inflation. The models indicate that shelter inflation is likely to slow significantly over the next 18 months, consistent with the evolving effects of interest rate hikes on housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Augustus Kmetz & Schuyler Louie & John Mondragon, 2023. "Where Is Shelter Inflation Headed?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(19), pages 1-6, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96528
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zheng Liu & Mollie Pepper, 2023. "Can Monetary Policy Tame Rent Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(04), pages 1-6, February.
    2. Brian Adams & Lara Loewenstein & Hugh Montag & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2022. "Disentangling rent index differences: data, methods, and scope," Working Papers 22-38R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 28 Sep 2023.
    3. Denis Gorea & Augustus Kmetz & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Marianna Kudlyak & Mitchell Ochse, 2023. "House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(09), pages 1-5, March.
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