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How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT

Author

Listed:
  • John G. Fernald
  • Neil Gerstein
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

China?s official GDP shows that its pace of economic growth has slowed gradually since 2010 but remains remarkably high, around 6%. A new index, the China Cyclical Activity Tracker, or China CAT, provides an alternative way to measure fluctuations in Chinese economic activity using a weighted average of several non-GDP indicators. The index suggests that economic activity has slowed noticeably since 2017 to a pace slightly below trend. GDP growth statistics appear excessively smooth over recent years, but, as of mid-2019, are in line with the China CAT.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Neil Gerstein & Mark M. Spiegel, 2019. "How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00206
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