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The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen

Abstract

The yield spread between long-term and short-term Treasury securities is known to be a good predictor of economic activity, particularly of looming recessions. One way to learn more is through a careful scrutiny of the historical variation of such yield spreads and how they relate to the current slope of the Treasury yield curve. The results suggest that the recent flattening of the yield curve implies only a slightly elevated risk of a recession in the near term relative to any other month.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen, 2018. "The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00174
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    2. Arto Kovanen, 2019. "Perspectives From the Past for the Federal Reserve¡¯s Monetary Policy and Communication," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(1), pages 31-51, January.

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